Match 4th Test
The Ashes 2025-26
December 26, 2025, 5:00 am
Australia Logo
Australia
Odds » 1.45
VS.
England Logo
England
Odds » 3.35
Draw » 11
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne

AUS vs ENG Today’s Match Prediction & Cricket Betting Tips: The Ashes 2025-26, 4th Test, December 26

Published on: Dec 25, 2025 5:00 am IST | Updated on: Dec 24, 2025 12:39 pm IST

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It’s Boxing Day, and it’s time for the 4th Ashes Test to take center stage at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground in Melbourne. The Boxing Day Test is always a huge Test in the Australian calendar; however, after Australia already sealed the Ashes urn after winning the previous game in Adelaide, the significance of this special Test looks a bit gloomy. Barring the first innings of the first test of this series in Perth, Australia has been all over England, and heading into the MCG, the hosts will look to make it 4-0. In this post, we have come up with free expert tips for the 4th Test Match, AUS vs ENG, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne.

Win Probability: AUS vs ENG

The Kangaroos have been all over the Englishmen in this series. They have played quality cricket and reacted according to the match situation. Ben Stokes’ swag has been shoveled in this series, but still, the English team management isn’t looking desperate to win a game on a trip that is turning out to be nothing but shambolic. Heading into the ‘G,’ as they say in Australian slang, the hosts must be pretty confident to make four wins in a row, even with Pat Cummins unavailable for the rest of the series. There’s no doubt that the win probability meter would favor the hosts yet again. Let’s continue with the post and find out the best cricket tips for the 4th Test Match, AUS vs ENG, at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne.

AUS: 81% win chance
ENG: 19% win chance

  • The Aussies have now won their last 9 Test matches in a row.
  • England have no wins to their name from the last 5 Test matches. They have lost 4 and drawn 1 in this period.
  • In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, Australia leads the way with 3 wins, whereas one game was won by England at home. This stretch also includes a draw.

Cricket Betting Tips for AUS vs ENG- 4th Test

Travis Head to score Over 33.5 in 1st Innings

Travis Head is leading the run-charts in this Ashes series with twin centuries. From 6 innings so far, the left-hander has accumulated 379 runs averaging 63.17.

Alex Carey to score Over 28.5 in 1st Innings

The Australian wicket-keeper is the second-highest run-getter so far in this series with 267 runs from 4 innings, including a ton.

Joe Root to score Over 30.5 in 1st Innings

England has had a torrid batting display in the entire series, but their best batter, Joe Root, has stood out from the rest with 219 runs from 6 innings, averaging 43.60.

Mitchell Starc to be the Top Bowler

The veteran left-hander has steamrolled English batting in this series so far. Starc has scalped 22 wickets from 3 games, including two 5-fers, and has been the best bowler on display.

AUS vs ENG Today’s Match Prediction

Check out our prediction for the AUS vs ENG 4th Test match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne.

England trying their level best to ‘loose’ yet another match

From their mid-Ashes break in Noosa to not playing a warm-up game with the pink ball ahead of the 2nd Test in Gabba, England has not left any stone unturned in ‘losing,’ or should I say, getting humiliated in the ongoing Ashes Test series in Australia. The swagger of Captain Ben Stokes has been shattered on this trip, but his body language still looks arrogant, as if nothing has happened.

The Englishmen have been humiliated left, right, and center on this trip to Australia. The hosts have been clinical in all facets of the game and will head into the iconic MCG for the Boxing Day Test with their tails up. They don’t have to do much to earn a victory, as England, with their repulsive approach, will spoil the game themselves and hand Australia yet another victory to go 4-0 up in the series.

However, if England wants to win this game, they have to bat responsibly. Their top 4 need to be among runs, along with the jaunty skipper Ben Stokes. Their bowlers have done well in patches but let the game slip away, especially when the Australian tail wags around for a while. Even the smallest of the partnerships between the tailenders have hurt England badly, something they need to look out for heading into the MCG.

Australia looks perfect enough to go 4-0 up in the series

Australia enter the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground with momentum firmly on their side. Having already sealed the Ashes in Adelaide, the hosts now eye a commanding 4-0 lead in the series. While the traditional Boxing Day spectacle usually carries immense weight in the Australian cricket calendar, the fact that the urn is already secured has slightly dimmed its competitive edge.

That said, the Australians have looked nearly flawless throughout the series. Apart from England’s spirited first innings in Perth, the visitors have struggled to match the hosts’ intensity and execution. Australia’s batting has been dominant, with their top order consistently piling on runs, while the pace attack has relentlessly exposed England’s frailties. The MCG pitch is expected to offer bounce and carry, conditions tailor-made for the home side’s fast bowlers.

For England, this Test is about salvaging pride and proving they can compete. For Australia, it’s about stamping authority and showcasing their depth. With confidence soaring and form peaking, the hosts look perfectly placed to extend their dominance and push for a 4-0 scoreline, reinforcing their supremacy in this Ashes campaign. Let’s move ahead and check the cricket tips.

AUS vs ENG Head-to-Head

Matches Played: 364
AUS won: 155
ENG won: 112
Draw: 97
RECENT form AUSTRALIA: W W W W W
RECENT form ENGLAND: D L L L L

The Australian team has been dominant in this Ashes series, and they have been dominant in the overall test matches record over England. In 364 meetings between these two sides in Test cricket, Australia has won 155 games, whereas England have only 112 wins to their name. 97 matches ended in a draw. 

Team Analysis: Australia and England

How will the two teams, i.e., Australia and England, fare in the fourth Ashes Test? Let’s take a look.

Australia (AUS)

  • Pat Cummins has been ruled out for the entirety of the series due to a recurring injury. His participation in the upcoming ICC T20 World Cup 2026 also looks bleak.
  • A hamstring injury has forced Nathan Lyon to miss the remainder of the series.
  • Steven Smith has returned to the squad and will resume the captaincy duties.
  • Jhye Richardson and Todd Murphy have been named as the replacements.
  • Jhye Richardson could be in line to play a Test after 2021.
  • If the surface assists spinners, Todd Murphy will get a game; otherwise, Michael Neser, who picked a 5-fer at the Gabba, could return to the eleven.
  • There could be a toss-up between Usman Khawaja, Beau Webster, and Josh Inglis for an extra batter at 5.

Expected Starting 11

Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (C), Josh Inglis/Usman Khawaja, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (WK), Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson, Michael Neser/Todd Murphy, Scott Boland

England (ENG)

  • England have named their XI for the Boxing Day Test at the MCG.
  • Ollie Pope’s ridiculous form has forced the team management to bring in Jacob Bethell at no 3.
  • Ben Duckett has also failed to score runs, but England doesn’t have a backup opener in their squad.
  • Jofra Archer has been ruled out of the remainder of England’s tour of Australia due to a side strain. This was somewhat inevitable, as Jofra can’t play more than 5 Tests in a row due to his fragile body.
  • Gus Atkinson has been named in the side as Archer’s replacement.

Expected Starting 11

Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (C), Jamie Smith (WK), Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Gus Atkinson, Josh Tongue

Weather Conditions and Pitch Report

Here’s the pitch and weather report for the 4th Test between Australia and England at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne:

Pitch Report (MCG)Weather Report (Melbourne)
The MCG surface is expected to be bowler-friendly, offering seam movement and bounce, especially in the first two days.Day 1 forecast: Cloudy skies, with a 20% chance of showers. Southerly winds at 20–30 km/h. Max temperature around 20°C.
Fast bowlers will enjoy early assistance, while batters must show patience to build innings.Day 2: Mild conditions continue, with only a slight chance of rain. Temperatures remain in the low 20s.
As the match progresses, the pitch should settle, rewarding disciplined batting and stroke play.Later days: Melbourne’s weather can be unpredictable, but forecasts suggest minimal disruptions for most of the Test.
Spinners may come into play from Day 3 onwards, as footmarks and wear begin to assist turn.Overall: Conditions are cool and cricket-friendly, with manageable wind and little rain expected across the five days.
Historically, the MCG has produced results-oriented Tests, with bowlers holding the edge early before batters dominate later.Fans can expect a full Boxing Day Test spectacle without major weather interruptions.

Toss Prediction

With early seam movement expected at the MCG, the captain winning the toss may opt to bowl first, exploiting fresh conditions. Batting will become easier later, so setting up the game with disciplined bowling could tilt the momentum early.

Where to Watch Today’s Match

The online live streaming of the 4th Test match of the Ashes 2025-26 will take place live on the JioHotstar app. The live TV coverage for this series will be available on the Star Sports 1, 2, and 3 channels.

AUS vs ENG: Today’s Match Predictions

Australia looks unstoppable heading into the Boxing Day Test at the MCG. With their batting firing and pace attack dominating, the hosts are favorites to secure a 4-0 lead. England must produce something extraordinary, but current form suggests Australia will extend their winning streak. Therefore, the hosts, Australia, still remain the favorites and are expected to win the AUS vs ENG 4th Ashes Test match and go 4-0 up in the series.

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Australia Logo
Odds » 1.45
VS.
England Logo
Odds » 3.35