Match 5th Test
The Ashes 2025-26
January 4, 2026, 5:00 am
England Logo
England
Odds » 1.63
VS.
Australia Logo
Australia
Odds » 3.25
Draw » 6.80
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney

AUS vs ENG Today’s Match Prediction & Cricket Betting Tips: The Ashes 2025-26, 5th Test, January 4

Published on: Jan 3, 2026 5:07 am IST | Updated on: Jan 2, 2026 5:58 pm IST

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It’s time for the final frontier of Ashes 2025-26. Australia, who is already 3-1 up in the series, will host England for the final time in this Ashes series at the Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney. The visitors are heading into this contest on the back of a win in Melbourne, and it is something they will cherish and gain momentum from heading into the fifth and final Test of the series. In this post, we have come up with free expert tips for the 5th Test Match, AUS vs ENG, at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney.

Win Probability: AUS vs ENG

Well, Australia did lose the last Test match in under 2 days. The pitch at Melbourne was deemed ‘unsatisfactory’ by ICC, and cricket pundits stood on with their quarrels for the same. Heading into Sydney, the Aussies will look to start afresh and give Usman Khawaja a cheerful end to his international career. A win is the best way for Usman to hang up his boots, and the hosts will not leave any stone unturned in achieving the same. Expect the win probability meter to favor the hosts at the SCG. Let’s continue with the post and find out the best cricket tips for the 5th Test Match, AUS vs ENG, at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney.

AUS: 82% win chance
ENG: 18% win chance

  • A humiliating defeat at the MCG was Australia’s first loss after 9 straight wins in Test matches.
  • Melbourne’s win was England’s first after losing 4 in a row.
  • In the last five Test between the two sides, Australia has 3 wins, whereas England has won 2.

Cricket Betting Tips for AUS vs ENG- 5th Test

Travis Head to score Over 31.5 in 1st Innings

Travis Head is the leading run-getter in the series so far with 437 runs from 8 innings. Expect him to have a go at the English bowlers yet again.

Steven Smith to score Over 36.5 in 1st innings

An Ashes series without Steven Smith's hundred is quite a rare sight in recent times. However, things could change in Sydney, as this is one of the favorite scoring grounds for Smith. Expect the veteran batter to get his touch back.

Zak Crawley to score Over 20.5 in 1st Innings

The English opener is also the leading run-getter for England in this series with 256 runs across 8 innings.

Joe Root to score Over 31.5 in 1st Innings

The no 1 Test batter in the world is also the only centurion for England in this Ashes series. Expect him to have a good last game of a disappointing Ashes series.

AUS vs ENG Today’s Match Prediction

Check out our prediction for the AUS vs ENG 5th Test match at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney.

England will look to end yet another disappointing Ashes test series down under with a win 

England will be determined to finish the Ashes 2025-26 on a high as they prepare for the fifth and final Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Despite Australia already sealing the series 3-1, the visitors gained a morale boost with their emphatic win in Melbourne, a rare highlight in what has otherwise been another disappointing campaign down under. That victory, achieved in under two days on a pitch later deemed ‘unsatisfactory’ by the ICC, has given England a glimmer of momentum heading into Sydney.

For Australia, the focus will be on bouncing back strongly and ensuring a fitting farewell for veteran Usman Khawaja, who is set to retire after this Test. The hosts will be eager to deliver a commanding performance at the SCG, a venue where spinners often play a decisive role in the final innings. With home advantage and a settled squad, the win probability meter tilts heavily in Australia’s favor.

England, however, will look to channel the confidence from Melbourne and salvage pride by ending the series with back-to-back victories. The clash promises intensity, with both sides motivated by contrasting goals—Australia eyeing a celebratory send-off, and England desperate to avoid another forgettable Ashes tour.

Australia looking to take the Ashes 4-1

Australia will head into the fifth and final Ashes Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground with their sights firmly set on sealing a 4-1 series triumph. Already holding an unassailable lead, the hosts will be eager to bounce back after their rare stumble in Melbourne, where England claimed a morale-boosting win. The SCG offers a fresh canvas, and Australia will look to reassert their dominance in front of a passionate home crowd.

A victory here would not only underline their superiority in the 2025-26 Ashes but also provide a fitting farewell to veteran Usman Khawaja, who is set to retire after this match. The team will be motivated to give him a memorable send-off while also showcasing the depth and resilience that has defined their campaign. With their pace attack expected to exploit early conditions and spinners likely to play a role later, Australia appears well-balanced for the challenge.

Securing a 4-1 result would reinforce their status as the benchmark in Test cricket and highlight their ability to recover quickly from setbacks. Expect the hosts to come out with intent, determined to close the series in emphatic fashion. Let’s move ahead and check the cricket tips.

AUS vs ENG Head-to-Head

Matches Played: 365
AUS won: 155
ENG won: 113
Draw: 97
RECENT form AUSTRALIA: W W W W L
RECENT form ENGLAND: L L L L W

After a win in the last game, England secured their 113th win in Ashes Tests over Australia. The Australians, however, still lead the way by winning 155 out of the 365 Tests, which included 97 drawn games. 

Team Analysis: Australia and England

How will the two teams, i.e., Australia and England, fare in the fifth Ashes Test? Let’s take a look.

Australia (AUS)

  • This would be the final international game for Usman Khawaja, as the 39-year-old announced his retirement on Friday morning.
  • There could be a toss-up between Jhye Richardson and Todd Murphy for the extra bowler role.
  • If the surface in Sydney remains a green top, Richardson would continue; otherwise, we could see the off-spinner Todd Murphy getting a game.
  • Josh Inglis and Beau Webster were earlier released from the setup to feature in the ongoing BBL.

Expected Starting 11

Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (C), Usman Khawaja, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (WK), Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson/Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Scott Boland

England (ENG)

  • The visitors have announced a 12-man squad for this game.
  • Shoaib Bashir, the off-spinner, is expected to remain the 12th man, with Matthew Potts set to make his maiden Ashes appearance.
  • Potts will come into the eleven for the injured Gus Atkinson, who has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

Expected Starting 11

Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (C), Jamie Smith (WK), Will Jacks, Brydon Carse, Matthew Potts, Josh Tongue

Weather Conditions and Pitch Report

Here’s the pitch and weather report for the 5th Test between Australia and England at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney:

Pitch Report (SCG)Weather Report (Sydney, Jan 4–8, 2026)
The SCG curator has prepared a surface designed to last the full five days, aiming for an even contest between bat and ball.Conditions on January 4 are forecast to be warm (27°C) with light rain showers possible (38% chance).
The pitch is expected to offer early assistance to seamers, while spinners should come into play from Day 3 onwards.Humidity will be high (up to 94%), which could aid swing bowling in the morning sessions.
Batters can expect true bounce and value for shots, but patience will be key as the surface slows later in the match.Winds will be moderate (15 km/h from the east), unlikely to disrupt play.
Historically, the SCG has produced results favoring spinners in the final innings, making team selection crucial.The following days (Jan 5–7) look mostly sunny (26–30°C), reducing rain interruptions.
The curator emphasized avoiding extremes after criticism of the MCG pitch, promising a balanced track.Rain risks increase again around Jan 10–12, but the Test window (Jan 4–8) should see mostly playable conditions.

Toss Prediction

At the SCG, captains face a tricky call. Early seam movement and humid conditions suggest bowling first, but the pitch traditionally favors batting before spinners dominate later. Australia may opt to bat and set a platform, while England could lean towards exploiting the morning swing with the new ball.

Where to Watch Today’s Match

The online live streaming of the 5th Test match of the Ashes 2025-26 will take place live on the JioHotstar app. The live TV coverage for this series will be available on the Star Sports 1, 2, and 3 channels.

AUS vs ENG: Today’s Match Predictions

Australia yet again will start as the favorites. With the series already in their pocket, the hosts will look to take the series 4-1 rather than 3-2. They have dominated in the series, barring the last game, and should start as the favorites yet again against a confused and underperforming English side. Therefore, the hosts, Australia, still remain the favorites and are expected to win the AUS vs ENG 5th Ashes Test match and take the series 4-1.

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England Logo
Odds » 1.63
VS.
Australia Logo
Odds » 3.25